$250M TON Buyback Announced: Will It Break Out?

TON is entering a stage of high expectations as two major catalysts emerge simultaneously: a $250 million buyback program and a digital asset treasury strategy tailored for the Telegram ecosystem.

Behind this optimism, however, the market still faces heavy “sell walls” and key resistance zones that may determine whether TON can surge 50% or remain stuck in a narrow trading range.

Institutional Push

Toncoin has drawn attention with a series of institutional-level moves. The official announcement of TON Strategy’s $250 million buyback program signals capital growth expectations and proactive capital management, while not all buyback programs help increase token prices.

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At the same time, AlphaTON Capital recently launched a digital asset treasury strategy focusing on the Telegram ecosystem. The company is expected to initially accumulate around $100 million worth of TON, creating an additional institutional demand channel and expanding TON’s potential for storage and utility.

Previously, Verb Technology held over $780 million in TON assets, marking a strategic shift toward Toncoin as its primary reserve asset.

TON at a Critical Juncture

On the market side, Toncoin is trading around the $3.1–$3.4 range, well below its recent short-term peak. Typically, the emergence of treasury funds and buyback programs helps reduce circulating supply and enhance holding sentiment, which could support a potential rally if substantial trading volumes confirm it.

From a technical perspective, several analyses show that TON consolidates within a triangle pattern, often a precursor to major price movements. Analyst Ali notes that if a decisive breakout occurs, the price could swing as much as 50%.

However, in shorter timeframes, the market faces large “sell walls.” Before reaching $3.525, TON must break through three more sell walls, which could act as near-term resistance to its upward momentum.

In the short term, supply-demand dynamics are evident: TON has been repeatedly rejected around the $3.4–$3.45 zone, widely viewed as a strong supply block. Without sufficient buying pressure, the price could retest the $3.00–$3.27 levels before choosing its next direction. In a less optimistic scenario, TON might even retrace toward $2.68.

“Market structure shows EQL formed, which often acts as liquidity magnets. A clean sweep here could fuel a move back up into the imbalance zone,” one X user noted.