Current Altcoin Bear Cycle is the Longest Ever – What’s Next?

While Bitcoin has reached new all-time highs, altcoins haven’t even started their bullish cycle. In fact, altcoins are going through a challenging phase. Their bear market has now lasted longer than any in history.

Recent analyses from experts show that altcoins have remained in a bear market for an unusually long period. This raises doubts among investors: Will an “altcoin season” really happen this year?

The Altcoin Bear Market Has Exceeded Historical Length

May did not bring a “sell in May” effect that would worsen the altcoin downturn. However, altcoin market capitalization (TOTAL3) still needs to grow 40% to reach its previous all-time high.

According to analyst Cyclop, the “OTHERS/BTC” chart, which tracks the market cap of altcoins (excluding the top 10 coins) versus Bitcoin, shows that the current altcoin bear cycle has already lasted over 1,200 days.

In comparison, the previous altcoin bear cycle only lasted around 945 days.

Cyclop’s chart shows that altcoins have endured 1,247 days of pain, with the ratio falling from 0.5 to 0.11. This reflects massive selling pressure and persistent pessimism surrounding the altcoin market.

Similarly, analyst Crypto Dan points out that the current altcoin cycle has stretched to 1,650 days. That’s much longer than the previous cycle, which typically saw an altcoin season after about 1,400 days.

This unusually long duration has shaken investor confidence in the short-term recovery of altcoins.

Investor Captain Faibik shared his personal story. He has held onto his altcoins with faith and hope for a turnaround. But what he’s seen instead is continued decline — a sentiment shared by many in the market.

“The worst part isn’t just the losses — it’s the constant uncertainty. You do your research, follow strong setups, listen to the fundamentals and narratives, and still… the market just doesn’t care. It’s hard not to feel like the whole thing is stacked against you sometimes,” Captain Faibik said.

What’s Next for Altcoin Investors?

Despite the prolonged bear cycle, analysts are not entirely pessimistic. They believe the current trend, although longer than usual, still leaves room for hope.

Cyclop, for instance, relies on market psychology. He argues that when sentiment hits rock bottom, the market is usually near its bottom.

“What calms me down about alts? When everything is too good → market top. When everything is too bad → market bottom. It’s a golden rule — to sell or buy, people need a trigger. 1247 days of hell for altcoin holders… How could it get any worse??? The bottom is very close,” Cyclop said.

Crypto Dan predicts that if an altcoin season arrives in 2025, it will last longer than usual to match the scale of institutional capital inflows.

“Let me remind you — in the previous cycle (2020 to 2021), during a 300-day altcoin season, total altcoin market cap surged about 1300%. If this time, due to spot ETFs and institutional capital, the cycle stretches longer than usual, then we must also consider that it may not end in 2025, but could last even longer,” Dan said.

Analyst Decode shares Dan’s view. He believes the long wait, bordering on despair, from altcoin investors will be rewarded.

“The longest buildup in history to what may be the biggest Altseason we’ve ever seen,” Decode stated.

Recently, BeInCrypto reported that institutions are shifting from holding Bitcoin to accumulating altcoins, starting with ETH and SOL. Experts predict that Public Crypto Vehicles (PCVs) will begin investing across the top 50 altcoins.

This could trigger an institutional-scale altcoin season, unlike any previous cycle.

However, some analysts warn that if an altcoin season does occur, it might signal the final stage of the entire market’s bullish cycle, possibly followed by a massive crash.