If history repeats itself, this is where Solana’s SOL price could go

• Solana price shows rejection off the 8-day EMA at $38.51, indicating that a retracement is likely.
• Investors should note that this downtrend could knock SOL down by 15% to $31.66.
• A four-hour candlestick close that flips the 8-day EMA at $38.51 into a support floor will invalidate the bearish thesis.

Solana price has been highly volatile after the crash in the first half of June 2022. As a result, SOL has seen massive recovery rallies that pushed it higher. However, the bounce seems to be facing a hurdle that is subduing it and preventing it from moving higher.

Solana price ready for a U-turn

Solana price rallied roughly 60% between June 18 and June 24 to set a swing high at $42.89. While this move was impressive, it faced a limitation and its upside was capped due to the presence of the 8-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). 

This rejection knocked Solana price down by 28% to sweep below the $31.66 support level. While bulls recuperated and trigger another 28% leg-up, this rally also faces the 8-day EMA again at $38.51.

If this trend continues a rejection could mean that Solana price might revisit the $31.66 support floor. 

As long as SOL stays above the aforementioned platform, there is always a chance for a comeback. However, a breakdown of this level could lead to a 22% crash to $24.52.

SOL/USDT 4-hour chart

Whle things are looking gloomy for Solana price, the downswing is occurring due to the rejection at the 8-day EMA at $38.51. However, if the bullish momentum continues to rise, there is a good chance SOL could produce a four-hour candlestick close above $38.51 and flip the 8-day EMA into a support floor.

Such a development will invalidate the bearish thesis for Solana price and potentially trigger a run-up to $47.43.