Bitcoin At $1 Million By 2026? Not The Good News You Think

Bitcoin crossing the $1 million mark in 2025 is a scenario many crypto enthusiasts dream of, but not everyone sees it as good news. Instead of celebrating, some experts warn it would reveal deep cracks in the US economy.

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said in a recent podcast that such a price surge wouldn’t be a victory but a warning sign.

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He explained that the crypto could only reach that level if the country is facing severe economic distress.

“I’d rather have a lower Bitcoin price in a more stable United States than the opposite,” he said, stressing that sudden currency collapses often come at a heavy social cost.

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Bitcoin Seen As A Crisis Hedge

When national currencies weaken, investors often turn to Bitcoin, calling it “digital gold.” That’s why Novogratz believes a skyrocketing BTC price would be tied to instability.

His comments echo remarks from crypto analyst Wolf Of All Streets, who said last year that if BTC moves too fast, it likely means the world is in trouble.

Stories and lessons from a decade in crypto with Mike @Novogratz.

We talk about $GLXY, the 80,000 bitcoin transaction, whether Mike has any investing regrets, maxis and altcoin communities, Bitcoin’s roadmap to $1 million and much more.

Timecodes:
00:00 Meet Mike Novogratz:… pic.twitter.com/4HrOi1juE5

— Natalie Brunell ⚡️ (@natbrunell) August 12, 2025

Still, not all predictions are gloomy. Cathie Wood of ARK Invest believes Bitcoin could hit as high as $1.5 million by 2030. Even her lower estimates land in the hundreds of thousands, with the forecast tied to growing institutional demand and the crypto’s limited supply.

Reports show that BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes expects Bitcoin to climb between $750,000 and $1 million by 2026, while Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor recently said that “Winter is not coming back,” and he went as far as saying that if Bitcoin is not going to zero it could reach $1 million.

Concerns Over US Debt

Novogratz also voiced frustration with how the government is handling debt. He said US President Donald Trump’s choice of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hasn’t produced the results many expected. According to him, debt-to-GDP remains unaddressed and the US deficit is set to rise, not shrink.

That fiscal outlook has added to investor anxiety. Market watchers believe rising debt and deficits could weaken confidence in the dollar, fueling demand for Bitcoin.

But Novogratz warned against cheering too loudly, suggesting the long-term costs of such a shift could outweigh the short-term price excitement.

Treasury Adoption Sparks Worries

Another point of concern for Novogratz is the growing number of companies adopting Bitcoin for their treasuries. He revealed Galaxy Digital is now receiving around five calls a week from businesses wanting to put BTC on their balance sheets. To him, this surge feels more like a frenzy than steady adoption.

For Novogratz, the warning is clear: Bitcoin at $1 million wouldn’t mean triumph. It would mean the US economy is in a fragile and dangerous place.

Featured image from BCB Group, chart from TradingView

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