Bitcoin Key Metric Signals Local Bottom, Price Rally On The Horizon?

As US President Donald Trump moved to impose new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China this past week, Bitcoin (BTC) prices fell to around $91,500 amidst fears of a global trade war. Although the maiden cryptocurrency quickly recovered from the flash crash, a strong rejection at the $102,000 price zone draws much speculation on the future of the current bull run.

Bitcoin’s Advanced NVT Flashes Local Bottom Signal – What Does This Mean?

In an X post on February 7, renowned crypto analyst Burak Kesmeci shared some insights on the Bitcoin Advanced NVT (network value to transaction) – an on-chain metric that evaluates BTC’s market valuation relative to its transaction volume.

Generally, the Advanced NVT signal helps traders identify overbought (low volume, high price) and oversold (high volume, low price) conditions of the Bitcoin market, thus predicting future market trends. According to Kesmeci, the Bitcoin Advanced NVT has indicated local bottoms on four occasions in the past year: May 2, 2024, with a score of 30.78, August 5, 2024 (35.82), September 6, 2024 (35.81) and October 10, 2024 (38.21).

In each of these instances, BTC experienced a price recovery but was preceded by a brief accumulation phase. Interestingly, as Bitcoin crashed to $91,000 in the past week, the Advanced NVT metric fell to 38.13 – a level consistent with past local bottoms. This development indicates Bitcoin is due for a price rally. 

However, while a short-term price bounce is possible, historical data suggest that Bitcoin likely remains in consolidation for some time before launching a strong price rally. Interestingly, following its rejection at $102,000, BTC is showing a range-bound movement between $95,000-$100,000. For a price rally to materialize, market bulls must overcome resistance at $102,000, with further hurdles at $105,000 and $106,000.

BTC Records $267 Million In Exchange Net Outflows

In other news, blockchain analytics company IntoTheBlock reports the Bitcoin market experienced $267 million in net exchange outflows forming a three-week streak of outflows.

Consistent net outflow is a bullish signal indicating investors are moving their assets from exchanges, reducing any potential selling pressure. Albeit, while the recent positive trend continues, the recent outflow volume is significantly lower than the levels recorded in November 2024 indicating room for growth in terms of investors’ confidence.

At the time of writing, BTC trades at $96,720 reflecting a 0.84% decline in the past 24 hours. The premier asset experienced a turbulent trading week with an overall loss of 6.48%, pushing its monthly gains to 2.90%. With a market cap of $1.9 trillion, Bitcoin remains the largest cryptocurrency and the eighth-largest asset in the world.