Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Loading Their Bags — Early Phase Of Bear Market?

The price of Bitcoin appears to have returned to its choppy movement within the $82,000 — $86,000 consolidation range, reflecting the level of indecisiveness currently happening in the market. However, a specific class of BTC investors seems to be moving in the crypto market with utmost confidence and conviction.

According to the latest on-chain observation, long-term investors appear to be increasing their exposure to the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. Below is what this new shift in market dynamics means for the current Bitcoin cycle.

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Has The Bitcoin Bear Market Started?

In a new post on the X platform, crypto analytics firm IntoTheBlock shared that a reliable indicator that offers insight into Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior is flashing an interesting signal again. The relevant on-chain metric here is the long-term holders (LTH) balance, which tracks the amount of BTC held by wallets for more than a year.

According to IntoTheBlock’s post on X, the Bitcoin LTH balance has witnessed a sharp upswing in recent months, coinciding with the premier cryptocurrency’s drop from the cycle highs. The on-chain firm mentioned that a rising long-term holder balance is historically correlated with the onset of a bear market.

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Source: @intotheblock on X

As observed in the chart above, long-term investors tend to accumulate heavily at the start of bear markets and early accumulation phases. This pattern can be seen in late 2018 and 2022, where the LTH balances experienced a sharp increase followed by price drawdowns.

Ultimately, this accumulation pattern suggests that seasoned investors might be shifting their investment strategy in anticipation of big price movements. Nevertheless, it is worth mentioning that this could also be a mid-cycle breather, with the Bitcoin price consolidating now to resume its bullish run later.

Lack Of Retail Activity Suggests Room For Upward Growth

Interestingly, a separate—and contrasting—piece of on-chain data has emerged, suggesting that the Bitcoin price might not have reached its cycle top just yet. This evaluation is based on the volume of “retail activity through trading frequency” experienced by the premier cryptocurrency during its last surge from $70,000 to above $110,000.

According to prominent crypto analyst Ali Martinez, Bitcoin price tops have historically coincided with surges in retail activity. Martinez noted the retail activity lacked the same momentum when BTC’s price move from $70,000 to $110,000 towards the end of 2024 and early 2025. If history is to go by, this suggests that there might still be room for upward growth for the flagship cryptocurrency.

As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin stands at around $84,730, reflecting a 0.4% jump in the past 24 hours.

The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

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