Bitcoin Weathers The Iran-Israel Storm Better Than Wall Street’s Best—Analyst

Bitcoin stayed surprisingly steady this week as global conflicts flared. According to André Dragosch, Head of Research at Bitwise Europe, the coin’s recent swings have quieted down.

Investors saw less shake and rattle even after a 7% dip over the weekend. That calm suggests traders aren’t spooked by every headline anymore.

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Bitcoin Volatility Drops Below Stocks

Based on reports from Bitwise Europe, Bitcoin’s 60-day realized volatility sat at about 27–28% as of June 23. That figure trails the S&P 500 at roughly 30% and lags behind the Nasdaq 100 near 35%.

GM ☕️

I don’t now who needs to hear this but #bitcoin continues to exhibit a lower realized vol than major US equity indices despite record high geopolitical uncertainty. pic.twitter.com/nnTW08hera

— André Dragosch, PhD⚡ (@Andre_Dragosch) June 23, 2025

Calm Amid Geopolitical Tension

The recent low volatility is especially clear against rising Middle East clashes. News of US bombing in Iran knocked the crypto down 6% to under $100,000. In past crises—like the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022—Bitcoin’s 60-day realized volatility jumped to around 60–65%. Back then, traders sold in panic. Now, most buyers and sellers seem to hold their ground.

Long-Term Holders Extend Their Grip

Based on reports from Glassnode analysts, long-term holders have hoarded a record 14.53 million BTC on a 30-day average as of June 23. That’s about 70% of the crypto asset’s full 21 million supply.

Over 30% of coins in circulation rest with just 216 large entities—think ETFs, exchanges, custodians, and corporate treasuries. When so many coins sit idle, there’s less to fuel frantic trading.

Institutional Bets Support Price Outlook

Market veterans like BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and OSL’s Eugene Cheung see this calm as a base for higher prices. They predict Bitcoin will clear $100,000 and stay there as central banks print cash and big investors pile in.

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Some analysts even eye levels above $150,000 by the end of 2025. Such forecasts rest on steady demand and shrinking supply on exchanges.

What Comes Next For Bitcoin

The lower swings hint that Bitcoin is maturing, with more people treating it like a regular asset. A quieter market can draw in more cautious investors. But it won’t stay this tame forever.

Big holders could still spark big moves if they sell large chunks. For now, Bitcoin’s steadier path may mark a turning point—one that blends old-school market behavior with the new forces shaping crypto.

Featured image from Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images, chart from TradingView

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