Bitcoin’s 6-7-Week Theory Shows Where We Are In The Cycle

After being in existence for over 15 years, Bitcoin has established a number of trends that analysts across the board have pointed to for historical value. One of these trends that has been established is the number of weeks that the Bitcoin price has rallied in each cycle before it saw a major pullback. Due to the similarity of each cycle over the years, one trend has stood out in particular, and that is the 6-7 week trend that often predicted when a major Bitcoin correction was due.

Understanding The 6-7-Week Bitcoin Theory

In an X post, popular crypto analyst Rekt Capital explained how Bitcoin price corrections have worked in the past cycles in a bid to understand when the next correction could be on the way. Pointing to a recurring trend, the analyst first opened with the 2013 cycle when Bitcoin had rallied, showing how much time the cryptocurrency’s price rose before it began to fall. Back in 2013, the Bitcoin price had risen for the first six weeks after entering into price discovery. Only on the 7th week did the cryptocurrency see its first major correction.

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Next was the 2017 cycle when Bitcoin had gone into price discovery and rallied for upwards of seven weeks. This steady pattern pushed the price to new all-time highs after rallying for almost two months. Ultimately, it was not until the 8th week that BTC experienced its first major price correction. It would fall 34% during this time, signaling the end of the rally.

Then, again, in the historic 2020-2021 rally, Bitcoin would enter into price discovery and for the next six weeks, it would rally relentlessly. Similar to before, the BTC price would only begin to retrace at the 7-week mark, falling 16% during this time.

The same trend also played out in early 2025 when the Bitcoin price rallied for seven weeks before correcting by 32% to the $75,000 territory in the first quarter of the year. This shows an alternation between six and seven weeks of rallying before a major correction. But nevertheless, one thing remains constant: once Bitcoin enters into price discovery, it tends to have at least six weeks of runway before experiencing its first major correction.

Where BTC Is In This Cycle

The current rally has already seen the Bitcoin price break into the $120,000 territory, which is uncharted territory for the digital asset. However, as the analyst points out, the BTC price has only been rallying for two weeks so far after the cryptocurrency entered into price discovery.

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Going by the 6-7-week alternating trend, it raises the possibility that this price discovery will last for six weeks. Given that it is only Week 2, according to Rekt Capital, there is theoretically another month of upside to come before the Bitcoin price faces its first real rejection and subsequent correction.

This could mean that the rest of the month of July will continue to be bullish for the crypto market, and move into the month of August. However, going by the 6-7-week theory, the end of August will be bearish for the market as the first correction, likely to be an above 30% correction, will happen around this time.

Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

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