How Understanding Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Other Altcoins Help With Predicting Crypto Prices – Cryptopolitan

Cryptocurrencies have transformed the global financial landscape, providing a potential alternative to traditional finances and challenging the established monetary systems. However, crypto has always remained a volatile asset since its inception in 2009. Take the leading token Bitcoin, for example. The digital asset reached an all-time high of $69,000 in 2021 before crashing down to the $20,000 mark in 2022. By Q1 2023, Bitcoin will be back again up to $30,000. Similar volatilities of crypto prices are constantly observed across the entire market, some more extreme than others. 

As the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies continues to grow, understanding the factors that influence their prices has become an increasingly vital area of research. This article aims to explore the key drivers of cryptocurrency prices, drawing on evidence from Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other prominent altcoins to provide a comprehensive understanding of the market dynamics.

Understanding the difference between fiat and cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies are digital assets that use cryptography to secure transactions and control the creation of new units. Unlike fiat currencies, which are backed by a central authority such as a government or central bank, cryptocurrencies are decentralized, operating on a global network of computers. This inherent characteristic gives rise to a distinct set of factors that influence their value, setting them apart from traditional currencies. Following are the key areas that set apart the value of crypto and fiat currencies.

Centralization vs. decentralization

Fiat currencies are issued and controlled by central banks and governments, making them centralized by nature. The value of a fiat currency is largely influenced by government policies, economic conditions, and central bank interventions. Central banks can adjust monetary policies, such as interest rates and money supply, to maintain the value and stability of the currency. In contrast, cryptocurrencies are decentralized, operating on a network of computers through blockchain technology. Their value is primarily determined by market forces, without the influence of a centralized authority.

Intrinsic value

Fiat currencies are generally considered to have no intrinsic value, as they are not backed by a physical commodity like gold or silver. Instead, they derive their value from the trust and confidence that users have in the stability of the issuing government and its economy. Cryptocurrencies, on the other hand, often possess intrinsic value through their underlying technology or utility. For instance, Ethereum’s value is partly derived from its utility as a platform for decentralized applications (dApps) and smart contracts.

Supply

Fiat currency supply is determined by central banks, which can control the money supply by implementing monetary policies. This means that the value of fiat currencies can be affected by inflation or deflation, depending on the actions of the central banks. Conversely, cryptocurrencies often have a predetermined supply that is governed by mathematical algorithms. For example, Bitcoin has a fixed supply cap of 21 million coins, which is expected to be reached around 2140. This limited supply can contribute to the perception of scarcity, influencing the valuation of cryptocurrencies.

Market factors

While both fiat and cryptocurrencies are influenced by market factors such as supply and demand, the factors affecting demand can differ significantly. The demand for fiat currencies is typically driven by the health of the issuing country’s economy, interest rates, and geopolitical events. In contrast, cryptocurrencies are influenced by factors such as technological advancements, utility, network effects, and market sentiment. Additionally, media coverage and public perception play a more pronounced role in the valuation of cryptocurrencies compared to fiat currencies.

Key factors affecting crypto prices 

Supply and demand

The value of crypto is primarily driven by the interplay of supply and demand. When the demand for a particular cryptocurrency outpaces its supply, the price is likely to rise. For example, Bitcoin has a predetermined supply cap of 21 million coins, creating a sense of scarcity that can influence its price. In contrast, Ethereum does not have a fixed supply limit, but its issuance rate is determined by its underlying protocols.

The supply of some cryptocurrencies is managed by their respective governing teams, who can exercise control over the money supply by releasing additional tokens to the public or implementing token-burning mechanisms. Token burning refers to permanently removing tokens from circulation by sending them to an unrecoverable address on the blockchain. This method helps to control the circulating supply and prevent it from becoming excessively large, thereby influencing the cryptocurrency’s value.

There have been several instances throughout the years, when supply and demand caused significant volatility across the crypto market. Take the Bitcoin halving event, for example. Bitcoin halving is a process built into its protocol that reduces the mining reward by 50% approximately every four years. This event effectively cuts the rate at which new Bitcoins are introduced into the market, leading to a decrease in supply. The first two halving events occurred in 2012 and 2016, followed by the third in 2020. In each case, the reduced supply of new Bitcoins, coupled with increasing demand, led to a significant increase in the cryptocurrency’s price in the months following the halving.

Demand for cryptocurrencies can be influenced by several factors, such as increased public awareness, utility, and investment potential. As more people become aware of a particular cryptocurrency and recognize its potential applications or use cases, the demand is likely to grow. Additionally, if a cryptocurrency is perceived as a viable investment option, this can further drive demand and consequently impact its price.

Node count

Node count, which refers to the number of computers or active wallets connected to a blockchain network, plays a significant role in determining the value of a cryptocurrency. Nodes are responsible for recording and validating transactions on the blockchain, ensuring the network’s security and stability.

The node count can be accessed through various sources, such as cryptocurrency exchanges or official websites of the respective cryptocurrencies. This metric is a valuable tool for comparing the values of different cryptocurrencies and gauging their adoption rates.

A higher node count generally indicates that a cryptocurrency is widely used and has gained popularity, adding value to the digital asset. A larger number of nodes in a network contributes to its decentralization, as it becomes increasingly difficult for any single entity to control or manipulate the network. This enhanced decentralization improves the network’s resilience against potential attacks, and fosters trust among its users.

The impact of node count on crypto prices is evident in the market capitalization order of current tokens in the market. For instance, Bitcoin and Ethereum currently hold the most nodes across the digital assets domain, with each network subsequently having over 9,300 and 7,500 nodes. Consequently, BTC and ETH are two of the leading tokens in the market with the highest capitalization. However, it’s important to note that a higher node count doesn’t always mean the highest market cap; rather, it’s a contributing factor to the token’s overall demand in the market. 

Node count also reflects the strength of a cryptocurrency community. A high node count signifies a robust and active community that is more likely to support the digital asset during times of crisis or uncertainty. By comparing the node count and total market capitalization of a cryptocurrency with those of well-established digital assets, one can gain insights into how node count impacts the cryptocurrency’s price.

Regulations

Regulations are a big part of crypto’s volatility and constant price changes. As the digital assets landscape is still relatively new, there are a lot of regulatory scrutinies in the industry. Any key regulatory activities in this space can significantly influence market sentiment, and thereby influence a token’s price – both in the short-term and long-term. 

When governments introduce regulations that promote transparency and security, this can positively influence the price of cryptocurrencies by encouraging broader participation in the market. For instance, the approval of cryptocurrency-based financial products such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or futures contracts can provide more access for both retail and institutional investors, thereby increasing the overall demand and value of digital assets.

Regulations that permit the development of financial instruments such as futures contracts or options allow investors to hedge against potential price fluctuations or even bet against the price of cryptocurrencies. This can reduce the volatility of crypto pricing, making the market more attractive to a wider range of investors.

At the same time, regulations can also have a negative impact on the demand and price of cryptocurrencies. In 2017, the Chinese government cracked down on cryptocurrency exchanges and initial coin offerings (ICOs), leading to a significant drop in the prices of major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. Similarly, when the country of El Salvador announced Bitcoin as a legal tender in 2021, the token’s price surged in the short-term. If a governing body decides to alter the rules in a way that causes a particular cryptocurrency investment to fall out of favor or become less useful, it can result in a decline in the cryptocurrency’s price.

Social media

Social media has proven to be a powerful force in influencing cryptocurrency prices. The collective voices of individual users, influencers, and online communities can create a snowball effect, propelling certain digital assets into the spotlight.

There have been several instances when social media has caused a surge or crash in the wider crypto market. For example, Influential figures, such as Tesla CEO Elon Musk and former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, have openly supported and endorsed Bitcoin, helping to increase its visibility and credibility. When these high-profile individuals share their opinions or announce company investments in Bitcoin, their followers often react enthusiastically, leading to increased trading volume and surging prices.

The impact of social media on crypto prices has been most evident in the case of Dogecoin. Initially created as a lighthearted joke, Dogecoin has grown in popularity and value, largely due to its strong presence on social media. The “meme coin” gained significant traction through viral content, humorous memes, and celebrity endorsements, most notably from Elon Musk, who has frequently tweeted about Dogecoin and called himself the “Dogefather.” 

Whenever Musk tweets about Dogecoin, the price often experiences a sharp, albeit sometimes temporary, increase. This also happened recently when the Twitter CEO changed the platform’s logo to a Doge image, causing the token’s price to surge overnight. This demonstrates the power of social media influencers in driving the value of digital assets. 

It is also important for investors to approach these assets with a discerning eye, as social media-driven hype can also result in equally swift declines. As the crypto market matures, the interplay between social media and cryptocurrency prices will remain an important factor for investors to consider.

Competition

The cryptocurrency market is diverse and ever-expanding, with over 13,000 distinct digital assets in circulation and new ones continually being introduced. However, the success and viability of a newly launched cryptocurrency hinge on its ability to establish a robust user network. For a digital asset to thrive, it must offer a practical use case on the blockchain that can foster rapid adoption, particularly if it addresses a limitation in an existing competitor’s offering.

As a new cryptocurrency gains traction and user adoption, it can have a ripple effect on the market dynamics. The growth of an emerging competitor can potentially diminish the value of existing digital assets as it captures market share and drives up its own price. 

Conclusion 

In summary, the valuation of fiat and cryptocurrencies differs in terms of centralization, intrinsic value, supply mechanisms, and market factors. While fiat currencies are influenced by government and central bank policies, cryptocurrencies derive their value from decentralized networks, underlying utility, and market-driven forces. Understanding these differences is crucial for investors and regulators alike as the cryptocurrency market evolves and matures.