Mooners and Shakers: One Bitcoin metric says it's a screaming buy, but nervy eyes are on Jackson Hole

Bitcoin and Ethereum are tip-toeing along in a week for crypto that seems about as stable as a Doodle Jump platform. There’s at least one BTC metric, though, that might have a bull or two posting eyes emojis.

It’s the MVRV indicator, and a shoutout to both crypto-trading insights company Jarvis Labs and Cointelegraph on this one, who seem to be the only folks giving it much attention.

MVRV refers to market value divided by realised value, which is the value of all Bitcoins at the price they were bought, divided by the number in circulation.

If you’re struggling to comprehend that, then to dumb things down, just know that every time this on-chain data metric has reached the “extremely low” level at which it’s currently sitting, it’s represented a pretty damn profitable time to buy. And it doesn’t sink this low very often at all.

According to “JJ” at Jarvis Labs, the three lowest MVRV readings for BTC have been:

• March 2015, back when BTC was still a pup and less than US$250.

• February 2019, when BTC was languishing around US$3,500.

• And THIS week, when it’s been trading around and less than US$21k.

Caveat: macro happenings

So while that’s encouraging and all, there’s a broken-record Debbie Downer at play, and that’d be an old American bloke in a dark suit. Specifically, Jerome Powell, the US Federal Reserve’s boss, who, at the end of this week will be giving some sort of clue regarding the Fed’s probable party-pooping strategies for the rest of the year and into the next one.

He’ll be talking at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, which is a kind of Glastonbury or Falls Festival for economists, without the music, drugs, booze and sex. (Probably.)

The Fed has a US 2% inflation target to reach. As it’s currently still sky high at 8.5% by last count, we can very likely expect a shedload more interest-rate hiking to come. Will Powell use the dreaded R word that ends in n and has “ecessio” in between?

OR… will he give an indication the central bank’s aggressive 75 basis-point hiking could ease up from September? If the latter, maybe it’d have a neutral to mildly positive effect on markets. Let’s dream BIG, eh?

In the meantime, we can either jump off completely, or just keep riding this flat part of the roller coaster…

Speaking of which…

Top 10 overview

With the overall crypto market cap at US$1.07 trillion and up about 0.4% since yesterday, here’s the current state of play among top 10 tokens – according to CoinGecko.

As you were, then, crypto majors. Not a great deal has changed on this chart since this time yesterday in Mooners and Shakers. Which is great news for stablecoins USDT, USDC and BUSD, and decent news for the rest.

When in doubt, though, let’s check in with a few different analysts on the market-barometer of a cryptocurrency – Bitcoin…

Over at Rekt Capital’s Twitter account, Rekt is sniffing around for a bottom… in Q4, and he’s probably not the Lone Ranger on that front…

In 2015, #BTC bottomed 547 days before the Halving

In 2018, $BTC bottomed 517 days before the Halving (discount March 2020 crash)

If Bitcoin is going to bottom 517-547 days before the upcoming April 2024 Halving…

Then the bottom will occur in Q4 this year#Crypto #Bitcoin

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) August 22, 2022

In the shorter term, though, here’s Roman Trading and Justin Bennett bringing the gloom yet again…

My expectations this week:

– $BTC continues lower, breaking 20.8k heading to 19k area by Friday.

– #stocks continue to breakdown as they’ve already lost support.

– $DXY double toppers get rekt as it continues parabolic uptrend.#bitcoin #cryptocurrency #stocks #cryptonews

— Roman (@Roman_Trading) August 23, 2022

Sorry to disappoint, but the #crypto market does not look healthy overall.

I’m a long-term #Bitcoin bull, but the chart below + macro headwinds paint an ugly picture.$TOTAL $BTC $ETH pic.twitter.com/6uSpmcpGb7

— Justin Bennett (@JustinBennettFX) August 23, 2022

Van de Poppe’s crypto-analytical world definitely has a few more chocolate rivers, unicorns and rainbows, though…

Overall, if $EUR / $USD will have a short-term bounce/reversal, I would expect risk-on to do really well.

I’m still surprised with the recent strength of #Crypto, which has been consolidating quite nicely.

Going to be some very interesting weeks.

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) August 23, 2022

Uppers and downers: 11–100

Sweeping a market-cap range of about US$8.6 billion to about US$440 million in the rest of the top 100, let’s find some of the biggest 24-hour gainers and losers at press time. (Stats accurate at time of publishing, based on CoinGecko.com data.)

DAILY PUMPERS

• Evmos (EVMOS), (market cap: US$587 million) +11%

• XDC Network (XDC), (mc: US$443 million) +10%

• Chiliz (CHZ), (mc: US$1.32 billion) +10%

• DeFi Chain (DFI), (mc: US$507 million) +9%

• Bitcoin Cash (BCH), (mc: US$2.5 billion) +8%

DAILY SLUMPERS

• EOS (EOS), (market cap: US$1.76 billion) -6%

• Celsius (CEL), (mc: US$705 million) -5%

• Lido DAO (LDO), (mc: US$1.22 billion) -4%

• Kusama (KSM), (mc: US$440 million) -3%

• Chain (XCN), (mc: US$1.83 billion) -2%

Around the blocks

A selection of randomness and pertinence that stuck with us on our morning moves through the Crypto Twitterverse…

UK inflation projected to hit almost 19%… bruh…

Got #Bitcoin?

— Lark Davis (@TheCryptoLark) August 23, 2022

Yes the Fed is going to pivot to a higher inflation as new normal IMO.
I spoke about it on Fox: pic.twitter.com/OdNpP6mvTW

— DigiBuild CEO | Backed by YCombinator (@RobertJSalvador) August 22, 2022

Hmm… meanwhile, some trouble brewing in a particularly vocal corner of crypto influencer land…

I wish I didn’t have to make this thread.

But I’m being sued by the YouTuber Bitboy Crypto for a video I made roughly 9 months ago, covering how he promoted a project named PAMP.

Last night the 3rd person Bitboy sent to my house showed up and served me the lawsuit.
1/5

— atozy (@atozy) August 23, 2022

Oh, and then there’s this… Is notorious, supposedly officially dead, internet security entrepreneur and crypto sh*tcoin shiller John McAffe actually alive and well-ish in Texas?

Probably not, but still kinda fun to entertain the thought…