New Zealand GDP rebounds but fails to lift NZD

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by Statistics New Zealand arrived as +3.0% for the quarter (vs. expected 3.2%).

For the year, it came in at Q4 3.1% vs the estimated 3.3% vs the previous -0.3%.

NZD/USD is steady on the outcome as a rebound was widely expected.

”Unfortunately, the prospects for further strong GDP prints over the first half of 2022 in particular are looking weaker by the minute,” analysts at ANZ Bank said.

”Omicron disruption looks to be hitting its peak over March, with many businesses struggling to operate due to worker absenteeism as COVID spreads through the population, as well as ongoing supply chain issues. Surging inflation will also weigh on demand, and make it difficult for the economy to make headway.”

Meanwhile, NZD/USD came off a touch around the Federal Reserve decision given the rise in the USD and US bond yields, which have reacted to the sharp rise in the Fed’s so-called “dot plot” and decision to hike by “only” 25bps.

Most Fed officials see as many as seven rate increases in 2022. The Fed explained that the economic activity and employment indicators have continued to gain strength, jobs gains have been sold in recent months, and the unemployment rate has fallen notably.

“The committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run,” the FOMC said. “With appropriate firming in the stance of monetary policy, the committee expects inflation to return to its 2 percent objective and the labor market to remain strong,” it added.

About NZD GDP

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by Statistics New Zealand, highlights the overall economic performance on a quarterly basis. The gauge has a significant influence on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) monetary policy decision, in turn affecting the New Zealand dollar. A rise in the GDP rate signifies an improvement in the economic conditions, which calls for tighter monetary policy, while a drop suggests deterioration in the activity. An above-forecast GDP reading is seen as NZD bullish.