NFT 2022 crash: Prospects for the industry dim

Are NFT markets next? That’s what some are wondering, after trade volume and NFT prices have declined significantly on average since their peak last year. If the NFT market crashes, the consequences could be huge: Lots of new buyers entered the crypto economy last year via NFTs, which insiders pitched as a fun way to experiment with crypto. If they feel burned by a serious decline, it could take a long time to bring them back into the fold.

The NFT market looks vastly different now. Last year’s NFT boom was one of the biggest crypto stories. The snapback could be one of 2022’s cautionary tales.

• OpenSea reached a $13.3 billion valuation in January thanks to its early position as the top NFT marketplace. Visa bought a CryptoPunk. Jimmy Fallon and Paris Hilton chatted about their Bored Apes on the “Tonight Show.” Competitors rushed in: Coinbase, Crypto.com and FTX unveiled NFT marketplaces.
• Now those corporate NFT announcements seem few and far between. Weekly NFT trading volume has cratered from $1.07 billion in August 2021 to $23.6 million in mid-May, according to data from CryptoSlam.
• It’s not all down and to the right. OpenSea transaction volume has increased about 8% in the last 30 days, according to DappRadar. Trading volume on Rarible is also up about 18%. But there’s nothing like last August’s NFT frenzy.

Morgan Stanley is predicting an NFT crash. A recent report said bitcoin’s fall can’t be blamed just on tumbling tech stocks, and other parts of the crypto market are being tested too.

• The market is treating crypto like any other risky, speculative investment.
• The Morgan Stanley report argues NFTs will crash following the UST rout because they’re the next most speculative and leveraged sector.
• NFTs are mostly owned by entities that plan to resell them for a higher price — not HODLers, the report says.
• Some of the more famous NFTs have declined dramatically in price. The buyer of an NFT of Jack Dorsey’s first tweet, who paid $2.9 million for it, is now struggling to unload it, with the highest bid around $21,000 now. Bored Ape Yacht Club prices have slumped recently.

NFTs made it from the fringes of the internet to the front page of The New York Times last year. That brought a lot of normies into the fold.

• Programs ranging from the online Discord community BFF to Visa’s immersive program for teaching creators about NFTs now serve as illustrations of how the boom was used to draw new participants into the crypto economy.
• When the dot-com bubble burst, it took nearly a decade for private tech investment to recover because investors were scared off by the instability. Retail investors likewise shied away from tech stocks. A crash in NFT prices could turn off buyers over the long term.

That’s still a big “if”: The NFT market, though wobbly, hasn’t evaporated like, say, luna. It helps that NFTs aren’t, well, fungible: Projects that center around well-executed artwork, a thriving online community, a fun game or an existing fandom like sports could survive a broader shakeout. Eddy Lazzarin, head of Protocol Design and Engineering at a16z Crypto, observes that “volatility has been the norm for NFTs from the beginning.” But even that, he noted, could change. Maybe a shakeout will lead to stability.

— Veronica Irwin (email | twitter)