Why ApeCoin Is Popping While Solana and Binance Coin Are Dropping

What happened 

Usually, the crypto market moves in a somewhat uniform way, but that’s not the case at all on Monday. At 12:30 p.m. ET, most cryptocurrencies are trading lower on the day, but one is up big. 

ApeCoin (APE 8.43%) is the outlier, rising 8% in the last 24 hours and 34.6% in the past week. Meanwhile, Binance Coin (BNB -6.43%) is down 5% and Solana (SOL -11.12%) is down 5.1%. 

So what 

The ApeCoin move is continued speculation on the token’s value ahead of staking. Investors learned late last week that staking would soon be available for holders, but will be “geo-fenced,” or blocked, in the U.S., Canada, North Korea, Syria, Iran, Cuba, and Russia. The developers are facing an uncertain regulatory environment in these countries and that’s what has held back staking, which could provide utility and benefits that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) feels make the token a security. 

Major cryptocurrencies like Binance Coin and Solana are down as the FTX contagion continues, this time with the bankruptcy of BlockFi early this morning. It’s no surprise that BlockFi is filing for bankruptcy after freezing withdrawals on Nov. 10 following FTX’s bankruptcy. FTX had provided the company with funds to stay afloat this summer and it’s not clear what the link between the two has been since then.

Solana continues to be stained by its association with FTX and Binance Coin is tied to Binance, a competitor to FTX in the centralized exchange business. Investors are weighing if there’s more risk ahead for either token and that’s not clear at this point given how complex FTX’s bankruptcy process has been so far. 

Now what 

The ApeCoin move looks like it’s speculation about staking that may or may not provide any real value. The ApeCoin token is supposed to be used in a metaverse that’s yet to be built, so it’s not clear how staking will provide value long-term. 

On the risk front, I think the crypto ecosystem has handled FTX’s collapse relatively well considering its size. There hasn’t been a rush of bankruptcies or insolvencies like there were when Three Arrows Capital failed over the summer. As leverage and speculation exit the space, cryptocurrencies are finding where their real bottom may be in this market. For a token like Solana, that means building a real ecosystem of projects that are providing value using the blockchain. And activity is up over the last year, despite the value of the token going down. 

I’m much more skeptical about ApeCoin and BNB providing real value long-term. ApeCoin is still a speculative token based on some kind of value from a metaverse that hasn’t been seen yet and Binance Coin is an exchange-linked token, which hasn’t been a great value historically. 

Today’s moves are ultimately speculative, but keep in mind that utility will ultimately need to be provided for every token. Of these three I think Solana is still providing the most use cases today.