Why Marathon Digital (MARA) Stock Is Down 40% in the Past Month

For those who haven’t been living under a rock, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has recently hit new all-time highs, trading above the key $70,000 level. Accordingly, one might expect Bitcoin miners like Marathon Digital (NASDAQ:MARA) to follow suit, given their exposure to rising prices. Unfortunately, though, MARA stock is down nearly 10% today. That brings its losses over the past month to almost 40%.

The question has to be asked: What gives? After all, the Bitcoin hoard on Marathon’s balance sheet and its ongoing BTC mining operations should benefit from higher prices.

Let’s dive into what the market is watching and why there’s a bifurcation building among certain Bitcoin-related stocks.

Upcoming Halving Hurting Sentiment for MARA Stock, Other Bitcoin Miners

One key catalyst driving BTC higher is Bitcoin’s upcoming halving event, which is set to take place some time in April. This halving will slash the rewards that miners like Marathon Digital receive from validating transactions on the network, helping to secure the Bitcoin blockchain.

So, in theory — assuming all else is held equal (which it isn’t, we’ll get to that in a second) — the price of BTC would need to double for companies like Marathon to see the same revenue and earnings from operations.

Thankfully, companies like Marathon Digital have been expanding mining capacity in a bid to take market share as other miners duck out of the market. But that’s a capital-intensive process. And analysts now expect that this halving could shave off as much as $64 million worth of daily revenue for such companies. More capital intensity and less revenue isn’t a good mix — that’s an easy bearish thesis to understand.

So, the question then becomes how quickly will Bitcoin double from here? After hitting previous all-time highs, doublings have historically taken place within about a month of hitting previous highs. Therefore, maybe MARA stock could present a speculative buy for those who think things will turn out okay.

However, right now, the market appears to be taking a cautious approach to MARA stock. I think that’s the right perspective. Until Bitcoin really breaks out above $100,000 per coin, this company could continue to see selling pressure in the near term.

On the date of publication, Chris MacDonald did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.