XRP to USD Forecast | Can Ripple Price Reverse Downward Trend?

Ripple (XRP/USD) is among the top 10 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalisation. Dubbed a “better alternative to bitcoin”, Ripple aims to futurise global payments. 

However, in recent years the company has been caught in the midst of a US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing, with its native cryptocurrency, XRP, struggling to reach past highs…for over four years. 

Down by 90.3 % since its 2018 all-time high of $3.3778, at the time of writing (5 September) the XRP to USD exchange rate stood at $0.3275. Can the token repeat the record levels, and what is the latest news on the SEC case?

What is XRP/USD and Ripple?

Ripple was created in 2011 by engineers David Schwartz, Jed McCaleb and Arthur Britto. They began developing the XRP Ledger (XRPL),  a decentralised, permissionless, open-source, public blockchain. 

The Ripple platform is a payment settlement system and currency exchange network using XRP Ledger Consensus Protocol. The network prides itself in its transaction speed, which according to its website, can take between three and five seconds and has low transaction fees that are “typically” under $0.01.

Ripple’s distributed consensus mechanism uses designated servers called validators, who have to agree on the order and outcome of transactions on the platform to enable them. Transactions are made in XRP coins, the platform’s native cryptocurrency. 

The token can be sent to other users directly without the need of a central intermediary. XRP coins are freely exchanged on the open market and used in the real world for enabling cross-border payments and microtransactions. 

Upon the token’s launch, XRPL’s founders gifted 80 billion XRP to the company. Ripple has since put the majority in escrow. As of August 2022, 44bn tokens remain in escrow. 

XRP/USD price analysis

Unlike many of its rival cryptocurrencies that gained popularity in late 2021, XRP achieved its first success in the early months of 2018 as it was teaming up with a number of legacy financial institutions, like American Express and Santander. The token spiked to the all-time high of $3.3778 in January 2018, yet the rally was short-lived as XRP fell below $1 in late February. 

After two years of fluctuating between $0.60 and $0.10, the XRP coin price rebounded to $1.8391 on 14 April 2021 amid wider cryptocurrency bull run. 

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Throughout the remainder of 2021, the XRP to USD chart suffered fluctuations, rising as high as $1.3894 at the start of September 2021 and dropping as low as $0.7993 by mid-December.

At the start of 2022, XRP was holding steady at $0.80. It dropped to $0.30 as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and surging inflation started to affect broader cryptocurrency sentiment. As of 5 September, the current exchange rate of XRP to USD stood at $0.3275. 

SEC’s case against Ripple

In December 2020, Ripple found itself in the midst of a SEC filing, which accused the company’s top executives, co-founder Christian Larsen and CEO Bradley Garlinghouse, of misleading XRP investors by selling $1.3bn worth of coins without reporting to the commission. The SEC had also accused the executives of profiting from the trade by around $600m. 

In March 2022, the court denied the SEC’s request to strike Ripple’s fair notice defence, which argued that contrary to the case, the company did not receive a fair warning that its sales of XRP coins could be in violation of security laws.

In July 2022, Ripple won a ruling that will allow the company to access emails from the SEC about a 2018 speech where a former official declared that Ethereum was not a security. The evidence could help Ripple in arguing that XRP cannot be labelled as such. The SEC, however, continued to battle this ruling and filed a brief arguing that the speech drafts “are not relevant to any claim or defense in this case”. 

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On 19 August, Ripple filed a motion to seal the identities of non-parties, some company employees and the personal financial information of employees. The SEC replied, clarifying that in doing so, it “does not concede that the above categories of information should properly be sealed for summary judgement briefing, and reserves its rights to oppose similar sealing requests for summary judgement.”

The judge granted the SEC’s request to file a 90-page long reply to its motion that seeks to exclude the testimony of Ripple Labs’ witnesses.

The outcome of the court proceedings could remain the key factor affecting the movements on the XRP chart. As of 5 September, analysts and investors await 9 September, when both parties are expected to seal any portion of the filings together with proposed redaction. 

Responses to the motion must be submitted by 16 September. Motions for summary judgement are expected by 15 September,  and any opposition to that must be received by 18 October and answered by 15 November. The coming months will be of great importance for Ripple enthusiasts. 

“The ongoing, never ending and changing lawsuit is one of the key uncertainties. SEC has a different angled strategy against Ripple through Wahi complaint. This added insider trading allegations against two other Coinbase employees and put nine other cryptocurrencies as securities,” said Anndy Lian, chief digital advisor of the Mongolian Productivity Organisation.

“If the SEC wins the case, this would set a precedent and would cause more problems for the crypto industry as a whole,” he told Capital.com. 

On 21 July, the SEC filed a complaint against Ishan Wahi,  Coinbase’s manager in its assets and investing products division, and two other employees, accusing them of insider trading and securities fraud. In the filing, the commission noted that the nine coins Wahi and other defendants traded were “crypto asset securities”.

XRP to USD forecast for 2022 and beyond

Despite the latest downward price action, algorithm-based forecasting service Wallet Investor gave a bullish XRP to USD crypto exchange rate prediction as of 5 September. The site noted that XRP is “an outstanding long-term investment”, adding that it has a long-term earning potential amounting to 284.71%.

Based on its analysis of past price performance, Wallet Investor predicted that the token could trade at $0.517 in 2023 and reach $1.258 by 2027.

DigitalCoinPrice supported the positive XRP to USD future exchange rate forecast at the time of writing, expecting the token to grow to $0.48 by the end of 2022 and reach $1.50 by the end of 2025.

By the end of 2027, the site predicted that the exchange rate of XPR to USD could reach $1.63. The website’s long-term forecast for the token showed that the cryptocurrency could surge to $4.63 by 2030.

Mark Fidelman, founder of SmartBlocks, was bullish on XRP to USD exchange rate, yet noted that the outcome of the SEC case will play a crucial role in shaping Ripple’s future.

“If [Ripple wins] the lawsuit, it should be heading back up to over a buck by the end of year, maybe more…It’s more effective and more efficient than anything that the banks are doing, so it should scare the banks and should help crypto,” he told Capital.com.

Note that predictions about the future of XRP can be wrong. Forecasts and analyst expectations shouldn’t be used as a substitute for your own research. Always conduct your own due diligence looking at the latest news, price charts.  technical and fundamental analysis. 

Remember that past performance does not guarantee future returns. And never trade money that you cannot afford to lose.

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